Friday, April 17, 2015

Martin Paredes is So Wrong That it's Painful

Martin, I don't understand why people read the crap you write sometimes.

Actually I wonder why they ever read what you write.

Look, you clearly didn't understand what DK wrote. David wasn't talking about a candidate. He was talking about a local big shot, not a candidate.

That's why you look like a total jack off when you go off on these little trips through the crazy woods. Now you all the candidates you mentioned an apology.

The local big shot didn't want to donate to a campaign because of Forma's connection to Ali Enrique Razavi. 

As much as you losers try to demonize me, it's Ali that turns out to be the toxic one.

That reminds me Martin. You sound a little jealous about the whole ad thing. It must really bother you that I'm able to actually have ads while you still have the SW graphic telling people they can buy space. 

Act now, operators are standing by!


Maybe David K should write his blog in crayon from now on so that the Flying Monkey can keep up.

Martin should know better. If Forma had been let go for performance issues there would've been a different amount refunded. No smart businessman does any work for free. They would've kept at least some of it.

Then again, no smart businessman backs out of a contract to go work for the competition in the same race either.

Who knows what really happened there.

But allow me to channel my inner Martin. "I have documented and connected the dots for you in several posts how Martin Paredes is completely clueless."

As for why DK and Ali are in this weird alliance, I have no clue but I doubt it has anything to do with his mom. Think about how often your own political views differ from those of your family.

As for DKs assertion that I broke code, I can take and accept that critique. Except that someone who doesn't operate by the code. Im not bound to operate under the code they don't follow. 

Allow me to use hyperbole to illustrate my point but I'm reminded of a scene in the Untouchables when Sean Connery explains the Chicago Way.

Facebook Fun (Again)

Okay, again we are keeping it light today since the weekend is almost here.

I haven't done a poll in awhile and I'm just too lazy to do another one today. So lets call this a rhetorical poll.

I guess if this was a fashion blog I'd ask "Who wore it better?"

But its not, so in this case,"Who's Facebook page is more interesting?"

Is it Rosa Cabrera (Arellano) and the saturation of selfies on her page?

Or is it Mike Pickett's Extravaganza of Extremism? (Personally I can't decide between him calling the highest ranking law enforcement officer in the land a piece of shit and when he calls Hillary a witch and hopes a house lands on her. Hope he doesn't think that way about all female electeds.)

You decide!












































Actually now that I think about it, I wish they were in an episode of Epic Rap Battles of History.

Fun Friday

Things have been pretty intense around here lately so I thought I'd keep it light and fun today.

Well mostly.

We'll do a little Flashback Friday and play one of my most favorite songs to play on my radio show back in the day. We'll have a little more fun with Facebook. And we'll get things going with schoolin' the Flying Monkey Martin Paredes.


We all know monkey boy is prone to "connecting the dots". Seriously the guy never met a conspiracy theory he didn't like.

He's been doing "candidate profiles" lately and the couple that were sent to me were really bad. First of all he's late to the party...again.

But the one he recently wrote about Peter Svarzbein is the funniest one yet. He alleges there is some sort of "formula" at play because there are very specific donation amounts on his report like 19 contributions in the amount of $96.80.

oooooooooohhh...scandalous!

Clearly this is a sign of a behind-the-scenes conspiracy involving former Mayor Raymond Caballero, Melquiades Segura (thats a valley reference, Google it) Paul Foster, and the Chupacabra.

Okay its not.

Let me help my furry-winged henchman of a colleague out.

The reason they are very specific amounts that appear to be part of a "forumula" is because they were payments made through PayPal.

Sorry to burst your bubble there Marty, but I'm afraid your little conspiracy theory is nothing more than PayPal's cut of an online transaction.

After having suffered through a few of his posts I came to realize that there's a really good reason I rarely read his stuff. Its like sitting through Paul Blart Mall Cop. You know its gonna suck. You know it isn't going to be pleasant. But somehow you get talked into it.

You're immediately hoping it gets better. You're waiting around for it to get good.

Or funny.

Or somewhat entertaining.

Eventually you surrender and are willing to surrender to the idea of it just not sucking.

Ultimately you find a way to get through it and when you do, you suddenly learn what its like to be any woman who has ever had sex with Ali Enrique Razavi.

Unsatisfied, disappointed, a little angry, full of regret and shame, and a little embarrassed and ashamed of yourself for making such a bad choice.

I kid, I kid.

Thursday, April 16, 2015

Jesse Gandara's Ouster Means Good Neighbors

It's amazing what ridding a community of the little Jessie Gandara will do for a community.

Ever since his prompt exit from the political scene in Socorro the city and their neighbors, San Elizario, are now good neighbors.

It wasn't that long ago that Little Jessie Gandara was trying to orchestrate the annexation of San Elizario.

After cleaning up Socorro city council, Socorro is now wishing San Eli High good luck in their bid to become state champions of soccer.

Good for them, and Go Eagles!


Forma Group and District #1

The El Paso political consulting and lobbying firm Forma Group appears to have represented three different candidates in the District 1 race for city council.

According to finance reports, Forma Group originally represented Dan Longoria. Longoria was the second candidate to get in the race after Peter Svarzbein.

After Dan Longoria dropped out of the race Forma Group then worked with Peter Svarzbein's campaign as you can see in this entry on their finance report. 


There is also refund entry in the Scarzbein report where Forma gives them their money back.

Not sure why they are dated for the same date but that might be just a reporting error.


I first spoke with candidate Al Weisenberger the day after he filed to be a candidate in the District 1 race. I asked him some preliminary questions and one of the questions I asked him was about getting in the race so late in the game and I told him there probably weren't any campaign teams left for him to pick up. Thats when Weisenberger told me his campaign manager was Rick Armendariz from Forma Group. 

Interestingly Forma Group nor Rick Armendariz's names appear on Weisenberger's report. Also interesting is the fact that Weisenberger dropped mail. 



Even though Weisenberger told me he had Forma Group early in March its possible that there are no expenses to report because he hasn't been invoiced for the work yet. Sometimes consultants don't invoice until after a campaign is over to avoid showing up on reports before the election is over and hold off billing their client until after its over. But expenses like design, printing, and mailing obviously have to be paid before the work is released so the 8 day report will likely shed more light.

Forma also did some work for several school board candidates as well. 

For context, Weisenberger was all the buzz in the days leading up to the filing deadline. As much as Rick and Forma might want people to believe they are shot-callers, they really aren't. They don't pull the strings, they get their strings pulled. 

Thats the pecking order. It is what it is. 

I don't know exactly what happened but in my opinion one of three things could have happened:

1. Both Svarzbein and Forma decided to part ways amicably, after signing a contract, in the middle of a big race. Its not likely, but hey that is perfectly plausible. All the money was returned according to the documentation above, so that could support a clean divorce.

2. Svarzbein could've fired Forma. Maybe Svarzbein decided he wasn't happy and wanted to go in a different direction. I suppose that is possible, but I don't see any firm not taking some compensation for any work that was done, so in my mind, this isn't a likely scenario. Plus they were together for only a short time so there's no reason to believe Svarzbein had any cause to fire his consultants.

3. Forma backed out of the contract. That would be incredibly bad business move for Forma and Rick because they started working for the competition shortly there after. No firm wants people to think they will back out of a contract with a candidate and then on a whim back out of the contract and go work for the candidates opponent. That would be absolutely terrible for business. In my mind that just doesn't seem plausible because its so bad for business right? Although others might argue that the fact that there was a refund of fees might suggest that Forma did back out to work for the competition.

At any rate, Forma Group is on their client in the District 1 race. First Longoria, then Svarzbein, and now Weisenberger. 

Svarzbein appears to be fine without them and Weisenberger doesn't appear to have really moved against Svarzbein so there doesn't appear to be any bad blood. So I'm leaning toward the first scenario, an amicable split. 

It just looks really bad that Forma is now on their third client in that race. The first one they get a pass for because he backed out. But working for one candidate one month and working for the competition the next month is just a really bad visual. 


Mike Pickett & His (Extremist) Political Views

I've been sitting on these screen shots for a while because frankly District 6 challenger Mike Pickett's political views concern me quite a bit.

First let me say I believe in the 2nd Amendment and that we as private citizens have the right to keep and bear arms. I enjoy shooting very much. Haven't been in a while, but its always fun. That doesn't mean I'm a gun nut about it though.

But what worries me is the militia movement. There is a small, but very extremist movement in this country that wants to engage in actual violence against the government. Like I said, I have no problem protecting myself, but I'm surprised a post like this one from a city council candidate even exists.

In fairness to Mr. Pickett, this post was from before he filed as a candidate. Nonetheless it comes across as a little creepy.

Call to arms?

What call to arms? I'd like him to clarify what he means by a call to arms. Does he mean the government or just the president.

Either way, talk about an extremist position.

Not to mention the fact that Mr. Pickett is actually running for a position in city government. So does that mean he wants a call to arms with city government too?

I don't know where is going with it but its really hard for anyone to take a candidate seriously that espouses beliefs like the "call to arms".

Sadly there are even more disturbing posts. As I've said before, I live in the valley and am a constituent in District 6. I saw this piece of political literature from Mr. Pickett the other day. I didn't get one yet, but a friend of mine did.



Its obviously campaign material from Mr. Pickett. What I found noteworthy was the fact that he was campaigning in the valley portion of the district and that the material was actually bilingual. Given the fact that he referred to El Paso as a suburb of Juarez I thought that it was interesting that he was using bilingual literature.

But here is something more interesting (disturbing to me). This is another post and as a Chicano, a liberal, and a resident of the district I found it insulting, distasteful, and embarrassing.


One's political views can change over time. But this post was from earlier this year. Mr. Pickett shared this image that equates illegals, terrorists, and liberals. That might be some of the most inflammatory stuff I've seen in recent memory. The undocumented aren't terrorists. Neither are liberals. 

Given the other post and the language of this one, I certainly hope that the "call to arms" isn't about the undocumented and liberals. 

I certainly hope he is held accountable by the voters for these beliefs. Perhaps he should be "transparent" with the voters about his beliefs. 

I should also point out the obvious here. Mr. Pickett is also apparently tone-deaf to the people who live in District 6. He hasn't lived in El Paso long so he might not know this but you'd think by know his supporters like former City Rep Eddie Holguin and Jaime O. Perez would have made him hip to the fact that below the freeway are the most Democratic precincts in El Paso. 

Apparently not. 

These extremists and apparently anti-immigrant views aren't going to go over very well in the valley...

Sadly...there's more to come.



Wednesday, April 15, 2015

El Paso GOP Chair Retires

El Pas County Republican Party Chairman Tom Holmsley has notified the Party that he will be retiring as Chairman effective May 1st, 2015.

Holmsley and his wife Mary (she is a member of the state committee) gave no indication as the reason for retirement. Holmsley has been the head of the local GOP for about 5 years.

The Vice-Chair of the Party will assume the duties until a new election takes place, which I believe will be next March. The Vice-Chair is Becky Hermosillo who also chairs the West El Paso Republican Women.

Bob Pena will continue to serve as the Elections Administrator for the GOP.

During Holmsley's tenure the GOP saw some pretty impressive turnout in their base during the gubernatorial year elections.

************************

Editorial -

Look, everyone reading this knows I'm a member of the Democratic Party and am pretty liberal in my political views. While the Chairman and I don't see eye-to-eye on matters of public policy, he is a perfect gentleman, open, and an effective administrator. I'd say he's been a worthy adversary but I can't honestly say I've ever felt like he as adversarial.

He and his lovely wife are very warm, polite, and welcoming people. Whenever I needed comment or an interview he was always very gracious knowing full well I typically have an opposing view point.

I'm truly sorry to see him go, but most of the other folks in place are cut from the same cloth.

Happy trails Mr. Chairman.

Something to Watch at YISD

I'm working on some school board stuff and last week I noticed there was a letter presented to the YISD Board of Trustees by the Eastwood-area Trustee Deby Lewis that was later reported in the El Paso Times.

Lewis presented a letter explaining why she's been absent and further explained that she would be out past the May 9th election due to some serious health issues.

From what I hear, they are very serious health issues that have required her to go to Houston for treatment. I respect Ms. Lewis' privacy on her health matters but many of you know how serious that is.

The question that came to mind is why didn't she resign so that she could devote her full efforts toward recovery? The school board position doesn't pay, so resignation wouldn't mean the loss of income.

But some within YISD are rightfully questioning why she hasn't resigned. Lewis is part of the current majority on the YISD school board and if she were to win re-election they would be able to appoint a member of their own choosing to replace Lewis.

I took a quick look at her finance reports and I noticed that she raised more than $4,000 which sounds like a lot of money for a school board race. This is the reason State Rep Marisa Marquez pushed for transparency in their reporting so props to her because this is an example of why its important to have a law that brings the school board members in line with all the other elected officials.

Turns out she received a $1000 donation from Woody Hunt, a $500 donation from the law firm that represents the school board, $1000 from a car dealer and $500 from the head of an advertising firm.

But she's not campaigning other than having quite a few campaign signs put up.

She's facing Mike Rosales who is a prominent figure in insurance. And if you're an eastsider, you can't go more than a few blocks without seeing one of his bus bench ads for his business.

This may ultimately be a moot point because Rosales is a formidable candidate and is endorsed by the Ysleta Teachers Association so he's got some organized help behind him.

But the whole situation draws questions. Something doesn't make any sense...

Ali Enrique Razavi & STA

When Ali Enrique Razavi was outed he tried to act like it was all calculated and was of his own volition.

It wasn't but how else did you expect him to act?

Remember that stuff I said about accountability?

I saw a post that got me to thinking that Ali might want to start looking for a lawyer because one of the people that he's spent a lot of time trashing is Stephanie Townsend Allala.

And she's not happy about it as you can see in this Facebook post.



Now I don't know what she is talking about in terms of pornographic. Seriously who wants to see an overweight hairy sweaty Persian with bad 90's hair naked?

Here's the thing. Say what you want about STA, but one thing is for certain...she's tenacious. She hasn't been fighting the city for years over emails because she backs down from a fight. Its probably cost her a great deal of personal expense to go through the long ordeal.

And that is over emails. You think she wouldn't happily go after Ali Bin Douche Bag?

But lets play this movie out to the end shall we? Say Ali says "phuck" it, come and get me. I have nothing you can take. Okay sure, that is definitely one way to look at it. Except that STA is a crusader for her beliefs, not because she wants money. Hell if the city gave up what she wanted, I'm pretty sure she'd be happy and move along. She wants results.

So say Ali Razavi doesn't have any money she can take. I don't think that matters to her one bit. I think its about her exposing any ties to Forma or other groups that she can. You know, the way Ali likes to post emails and such.

Then there's the whole calculation of the hassle. She's smart. She could go and file a lawsuit in court here in El Paso and then Ali Enrique Razavi then has to pay for a plane ticket to a town he hates to go make a few court appearances, hire an attorney and sit through a deposition while STA has her way with him. Actually I can't wait to request the video of that deposition once it becomes a matter of public record.

Its a minimal expense for STA to file a lawsuit here in El Paso. She lives here. She wouldn't have to incur all the expenses Ali would. But what if, and I'm just spit-balling here, there were an economic angle here?

What if she looked at the times of day that Ali Razavi posted on his blog and checked with the business he works for 1SOLTECH and found out that was during his work hours. STA might subpoena everything under the sun and say hey, he did this while at work and his employers provided him the means and equipment to do so, hell maybe I'll rope them into this lawsuit too.

I bet that would make things really interesting about the water-cooler. But hey, what do I know? I'm just a dumb cholo right?

Simone.

Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Introducing Ali Enrique Razavi

Time to pay the piper Prince Ali.

Slowly.

Ali Enrique Razavi has been outed as the guy behind Max Powers. In reality, Ali Enrique Razavi is a con-man. He's demonstrated over his entire career that he will say pretty much anything he has to in order for him to get ahead or what he needs. He apparently now has my buddy David K under his spell, although he should know better by now.

Before I go on, let me remind you about the difference between me and this guy, because when he was outed he tried to act like we are somehow the same. We aren't.

You guys can say what you want about me, and many of you do, but one thing about me is that I leave non-combatants out of any beef. He has fucked with my family and my loved ones. Hell he's messed with my relationships, an ex, my haircut, how I dress, my affinity for cholas, and my weight.

Now that you've had a chance to actually put a face to the name, you see Prince Ali might want to not talk about weight.

Do I disagree with public figures and electeds? Hell yes. But it is always policy related. And when I agree with them, even if I'm not a fan of them, I give them props.

Some examples - I made Lily Limon Homegirl of the Week once. State Rep Mary Gonzalez, I used to like her personally very much, but since she was elected I have major issues with her policy and lack of leadership on some issues. It isn't personal like it is with Ali who is pretty vile in terms of how he goes after her.

And when he does it, it almost makes me want to defend her.

Almost.

This guy has really messed with the personal lives about a lot of people. His constant obsession with Rep Gonzalez was weird at first, but now its just creepy. He makes fun of her sexuality and her identity. He implies that she's in a relationship with another member of the legislature. Both of whom are in committed relationships.

You can't mess with people's personal lives and expect people to turn the other cheek. Well I don't turn the other cheek, I guess I shouldn't speak for anyone else. I don't get personal with people unless they do it to me first, but like I've always said, I love a good fight.

Ali probably ruined the marriage of a city staffer in the mayor's office all because he thinks its funny and entertaining. Seriously, for him its about entertainment value.

But how you gonna talk about people's personal appearance when you look like a chubby hairy Persian version of the Crocodile Hunter with 90's boy band hair? Or more like Joey Lawrence's hair when he was on Blossom. Actually now that I think about it, maybe more like Marco Antonio Solis after being stung by a lot of bees.

Ali has gone after many people's livelihood. Not in a tangential way either, he has flat out publicly done so.

Now people know he works for 1SOLTECH in Dallas and he's going to have to worry about whether any of the many people he's wronged decide to pick up the phone and call the Fardi's and tell them all about Ali Enrique Razavi's little escapades.

I wonder how he'd react if people brought his loved ones into their beef with him. I wonder how he'd feel if people raised issues about his sex life or sexuality?

Ali will now find out what its like to be in the world of the known. He has to deal with accountability for what he has said. I can't stand Martin Paredes anymore than I can stand Ali, but he has at the very least always been out. Same with David K and I - we were the only political bloggers in El Paso and people knew who we were. Honestly it takes much bigger balls to write what we write because people know who we are.

I'm the only one that actually lives in El Paso. So I'm the only one that really has to be held accountable for a damn thing. Except DK, he has family and business here and so he has to be held accountable for it. And he has.

Ali and Martin live in Dallas and Florida. They hate El Paso and thats why they always down talk El Paso. Easy to do when you're literally hundreds of miles away.

----- A History of Betrayal -----

The con-man has been at this longer than many of you think. When he was a staffer for State Representative Norma Chavez he was leaking info about her to her political rival camp and bloggers like David K and myself.

He broke staffer code. I talk to a lot of staff and have been one. There are some things you never do. One of them is betray your boss. In politics, loyalty is a big currency. When you work for an elected you hear a lot of privileged information. In all my years of doing this and in all my MANY conversations with staffers there is one thing you don't do, you don't bad-mouth your boss. Sure it sucks that sometimes the elected throw staff under the bus, like the time Naomi Gonzalez did that. But it never goes the other way around.

Except for Ali Enrique Razavi. He sought me out. He couldn't wait to do that.

Actually he used to drop really bad embarrassing and personal crap about two electeds in particular on a regular basis. Obviously his boss Norma Chavez, but also State Rep Marisa Marquez. Although judging by how positive he is about her in his blog, he's actually now a fan of Marquez's now.

How would any employer or person involved with business trust a guy like Ali Enrique Razavi considering his history of betrayal for the sake of personal gain and entertainment?

Anywho...

I mentioned DK earlier and wanted to get back to that. No sooner had he written a piece about how Ali isn't tied to anyone in El Paso than Ali writes a piece about all the people he's been tied to in the past. Not the first time he's burned someone and damn sure won't be the last.

----- The Forma Connection -----

But the reason that Ali wrote that piece is because he wants to try to put distance between himself and Forma. David K and Ali make the point he wouldn't be tight with Forma since they were partially responsible for her downfall. That implies he has loyalty. The fact that he stabbed her in the back on the regular shows he doesn't. The fact that he would risk doing so shows that he didn't care about working for her and so why does he care if Forma bought her down? If he cared that damn much he wouldn't have been feeding DK and I, and all her political rivals info.

David K also makes the very valid point, using Escobar's emails as proof, that we in the blogosphere all get fed info. Some of us more than others. I don't get fed as much as I did in the begging. Now I pretty much hunt on my own but I get the occasional tip from electeds from all factions. I don't deny that at all.

So if David K was trying to say that Ali isn't tight with anyone locally he probably shouldn't have made that point because it actually proves that Ali has been fed. Trust me, Ali is closer to at least one elected official than DK and I will ever be.

(Sidebar: Escobar sending emails to an anonymous blogger was beyond stupid and there's no getting around that. She's not the only elected that has sent emails to bloggers. Like I said, electeds from all factions have sent me stuff. Probably DK as well. The difference is we haven't burned them and people know who we are. So yes, Escobar really screwed up doing so, but who do we know she's the only one? It might be that she's the only one he's burned so far.)

He lives in Dallas but was an Austin staffer, so it makes sense that he's dialed in to the Austin scene. But if he has no connections to El Paso, why would he be so concerned with what happens in El Paso city politics? He's never met the mayor's staffer that he was so visceral about. But he sure took a big interest in her didn't he?

Why? Because he was being fed.

Ali also spent a lot of time mocking Bobby Bowling and the rest of the Bowling family. What is Ali's connection or beef with them? None if he lives in Dallas and isn't connected to anyone in El Paso.

Except for the fact that Bobby Bowling and familia have a few business rivals in their field. Their chief rivals are Woody Hunt and Ike Monte.

Guess who Hunt and Monte are clients of?

Yep...Forma Group. You want proof? Well I thought you'd never ask!


Ali regularly writes about Forma and Forma's allies rivals. Need another example? I'm glad you asked again.

Today he wrote about Peter Svarzbein. He never wrote about him until the finance reports came out and he out raised the field.

That would include another Forma client, Al Weisenberger.

Now all of a sudden that target on Svarzbein's back that I mentioned is starting to be pretty visable.

Also, lets give credit where credit is due. Ali was bested by Martin Paredes. Which is funny in itself!

But it was a stroke of genius for Martin to bust him the way he did. Frankly considering how wrong he normally is I'm pretty shocked he put it together like that all by himself. Good for him.

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Ali went from saying he was still having fun being the Max character to coming out of the closet in a matter of days. And you people think that was because he wanted to? Don't be naive. He was told to. Forma has feeling the heat.

Ali knew that Martin was going to out him and like all seasoned politicos, he went back to the playbook. When there's bad news, get it out first and try to frame the conversation. That was Martin's mistake.

If it were me, I would've had the piece completely written and just left a spot for a quote and then published it. Rookie mistake by the JV team.

One last difference between Ali and I. I've been through hell and back. I've been to war and back. He hasn't. He's gonna learn what its like to have people shoot arrows in you. I've had it done and I'm still kicking. There isn't anything he can say (again) that hasn't already been said about me.

Welcome to the playing field Ali. This is going to be a lot more fun now.

More to come - I'm going to take my time with this one because I've been waiting a long time...

Monday, April 13, 2015

Ali Enrique Razavi

Trust me...I've got plenty to say about Ali Enrique Razavi and the revelation of him being the person who pens Maxi Pad. 

Ali in due time people. Remember that some dishes are best served cold. There's no rush here.

But someone sent me a screen shot that really almost made me fall out of my chair laughing. Especially considering it's from an AFCSME rep Hector Montes.

Since I am collecting quite the catalog of screen shots of things the little Mayor of Whoville has been writing about me, I have no qualms of talking about this.

This is apparently part of a conversation about the revelation that Maxi Pad is Ali Enrique Razavi.

 Run for what???

Are you kidding me Hector? I'll grant you that Ali is a hairy chubby hipster and any given kindergarten student at Pasodale Elementary would probably regularly take his lunch money, but give me a break Montes. Who are you kidding?

You should tell everyone about how you went crying to Candelaria once at Entravision when you and I had a disagreement.

Hey, anytime you want to say that about me, you know where to find me. Hell all you have to do is not walk in the other direction when I see you at Chihuahuas games like you usually do. I'd be real interested to know exactly what you mean by "he'd better run the other way".

But hey it makes sense why you said that about Ali, he's all the way in Dallas.

This isn't the first time Hector has tried to act like a tough guy. He told me he was gonna kick David K's ass once too.

He said he "knew people". 

Where? You went to Stanford ese, stop trying to act like a vato loco.

Anywho...more to come on Ali and Forma. 

Not Ali and Forman...

Saturday, April 11, 2015

Campaign Finance Reports - What The $ Means

Money makes campaigns work. It's crappy, but it is necessary to get your message out to voters. 

The candidate who raises the most money doesn't always win. But statistically, they win most of the time. Think of the last municipal elections. The top money campaigns almost ran the table - Mayor Leeser had so much feria he paid someone about $25k to just do social media.

That's more money than what was raised by almost every candidate in this election cycle.

Bottom line is that the amount of money you raise is an indicator of your support and a pretty good likelihood that you'll win. Sure, occasionally someone Suerkins-it and loses it, but rarely.

Vince Perez didn't raise as much as Chente Quintanilla and David Stout didn't raise as much money as Sergio Lewis and they both won, but those were unique circumstances with teams that knew how to leverage their funding.

At the very least you have to be competitive in terms of the amount of money raised to have any realistic chance of winning.

So the also-rans that didn't raise much money...you can go ahead and basically count them out. At this point they have to hope for "moral victories".

Sorry crazies but most of your candidates are not likely to do very well. 

Right about now Stephanie Townsend-Allala and that little Mayor of Munchkinland with bad hygiene Hector Montes are going to try to find a way to put the best face on this but it's pretty one-sided in terms of money ball.

The reality is the money in this town is like the odds-makers in Vegas. It's not just a whim. The people with money will make a calculated move in terms of their money.

I know that is not as sexy as the conspiracy theorists would like it to be. They're hoping for some sort of deeper correlation.

The rich white folks want to back people they think can win.

The more money you have, the more times you can touch a voter. It's that simple. You can pay for more mail, more phone calls, more block walkers, more signs, etc.

That's not to say that there aren't campaigns that blow their money lead. Some of them blow a couple grand a month on consulting fees for some slick talker to basically give them crappy campaign data and avoid their calls.

The incumbents are going to run the table...clearly. Dagda raised more money than I thought he would, but so did Niland. Which probably drives all the crazies...well, more crazy. He's just out-gunned. 

Pickett is going to get trucked. If this were football Ordaz would be Bo Jackson and Pickett would be the Boz.

In District 5 the answer is Noe. The question is, who is going to win?

It's the district 1 race where the money is gonna make the difference. Let's start with a truth...Svarzbein surprised all of you. 

No one expected him to raise that much money. Hell Svarzbein probably didn't think he would either.

The other top-tier candidates in that race were busy giving each other the fish-eye and completely discounting Svarzbein and I'm betting none of them thought he'd be the one to be the surprise dollar-earner.

And here's the kicker about his money. 

It's not inflated. 

Candidates like to add padding to their bras for campaign reports. For whatever reason they think the people who take the time to read a report won't figure out that paying yourself or adding "consulting fee" from your own firm, or dropping a big amount of your own cash into the report doesn't fool anyone.

Of the top tier candidates in that race I was surprised at how much of a difference there was in fund raising between the two top money candidates, Al Weisenberger and Svarzbein compared to the other top tier candidates. 

I figured Weisenberger and Gallardo would duke it out for the top spot and I thought Svarzbein might be happy to be in third place.

Gallardo under-performed. She was a very distant third raising less than half of each of the two top candidates.

So now Svarzbein will have a target on his back and the other candidates will be gunning for him. The Rodney Dangerfield of the race has turned in to Johnny Dangerously.

Now it's a sprint to early voting. The 8 day report, or as I call it, the GOTV report, will foreshadow how all the races turn out.

Can Bonart and Bertha bring in the bucks or will Svarzbein and Weisenberger distance themselves from the rest of the field? 




Thursday, April 9, 2015

Facebook Follies

Boy, my post election award season is gonna be fun this cycle.

There have been really funny follies on Facebook by candidates and I've got quite the collection of interesting screen shots. 

I don't know why it has taken so many years of mistakes in social media for candidates to learn their lesson.

Many of them have been warned by their campaign teams to behave on social media. But apparently they don't listen.

One of them tried to clean it up, which is smart. But a reader sent this one in to me so I guess we will start with it.

What's a city council race without a little Islamophobia? Am I right? 


Me Thinks Max Doth Protest Too Much

So Max did another one of his famous, "No seriously, I'm not Forma, stop saying that!" posts. Actually two from what I was sent.

Hilarious. 

He actually tries to go through the trouble of trying to lay out a logical and rational argument as to why he's not Forma. 

Okay, so riddle me this. If you're an anonymous douche like Maxi Pad, why in the hell would you care if others said you were Forma Group if you really aren't? Please explain the logic behind that one.

And don't try to give us this noble bullshit that you don't want an innocent person to be hurt because lets be real, you ran a mayoral staffer's life in the mud and probably ruined her marriage and after saying you weren't going to release emails between you and the County Judge, you did EXACTLY what I said you'd do and you released them. Clearly you can't make the "I'm a good guy" argument.

So again, if you aren't Forma why do you give two shits if anyone says you are?

The only person who would not want people thinking they are Maxi Pad are Forma. People thought I was Maxi Pad all along. Hell I thought about saying I was Maxi Pad on April Fool's Day, mostly to mess with his boy Sergio Lewis. 

Which is funny Maxi, because hasn't your boy read all the shit you talk about him?

But then again, you're really duplicitous aren't you? I mean you made such a big deal about Escobar's emails you would've thought you had documents that implicated her in the assassinations of President Kennedy, Tupac, and Biggie. 

You tried to extort me for a bunch of emails of you trying to pump her for information and her basically blowing you off? That's it? Really?

C'mon Maxi Pad. Please tell me you had something better. Please tell me your Monday "October Surprise" is at least something worth trying to extort me for. Help me save a little face here because although I knew you were going to release the emails no matter what, I at least thought you had something good. 

All you really showed was that you'll pretty much say what anyone wants to hear if they will give you what you want. Like a boy on prom night. 

Here's the big problem with Maxi's little explanation about how he isn't Forma. He assumes other people haven't heard about the level of Forma's involvement with campaigns as of late. Sources indicate that Forma is pretty much being paid to sit the bench in a lot of races. So yeah, Maxi Pad can claim someone is a client of Forma, but in many cases its really just to sit the bench and not work for the opposition. Which hey, they're making money doing nothing and sitting the bench, good for them. 

More Powers to them. 

Granted they're getting paid less than before and have fewer clients. I went to go apologize to them in person for saying they're Maxi Pad at their offices downtown a while back and low and behold...they are no longer officed in that building. Ah shucks. I was gonna take'em out to buy him an old-timey sarsaparilla to show him no hard feelings too. 

The other thing wrong with his little explanation is that he is assuming people always thought he was Forma. They didn't. Remember a lot of people thought I was Maxi Pad. 

They didn't start to think he was Forma until others started putting it out there and then things started adding up. Hell even a broken clock is right twice a day so I guess you have to credit the other MP of the El Paso blogosphere.

Maxi Pad can deny it all he wants. Its comical to me at this point. But the fact remains that if he really wasn't Forma, he really would't give a shit if anyone thought he was. 

Instead, he says he's sick and tired of it.

Oh well, apparently theres more to come on Monday. 

Which reminds me folks, I've got some interesting stuff for you early next week too!

Stay tuned. Its very...whats the word I'm looking for here? Ah yes...

Revealing.

Interview with Al Weisenberger - District 1 Candidate

I haven't had a chance to interview Al Weisenberger, candidate for District 1 on city council until last night.

Weisenberger spoke at the Westside Democrats meeting last night and I have video of his remarks. As I mentioned before, my video camera battery died so I had to do an audio-only interview with him.


Audio: Interview with Dori Fenenbock -EPISD District 7 Candidate

As I mentioned previously I was going to try to get as many interviews with candidates for school board as possible and I conducted an interview with Dori Fenenbock, candidate for EPISD District 7 last night at the Westside Democrats monthly meeting. 

Normally this would've been an on-camera interview but I didn't have a full charge on my camera battery when I went to the meeting. I think I got some video of her addressing the membership and if I have that, I will post it later today. For now, here's the audio of our interview in which I asked her about her background, what she thought of charter schools, questions about the budget, etc.