Monday, October 22, 2012

All Countywide Republicans Poised for Nov Loss

I know, I know, I'm fiercely Democratic and none of you are shocked that I think all the Republicans in countywide elections are going to lose.

But regardless of my own political beliefs, I can look at numbers just like anyone else can. Except apparently the poor souls that sign up to be campaign managers for these candidates.

I actually like many of the candidates that are running in countywide races, I disagree with their policy, but I find most of them likeable enough. Of the ones I personally know anyway.

But the point is, they are going to get their butts handed to them. All of them are going to catch a political beat-down.

The main reason?

NUMBERS!

Do the math people. Voters are creatures of habits and all you need to do is look at voting trends and its easy to see how badly things are going to go for Republicans countywide.

In 2008 there were over 76,000 people in El Paso County that voted Democratic. There were under 24,000 that voted Republican. That was a year Democrats over-performed.

So lets look at a year in which Republicans over-performed. Even at their high-water mark in terms of performance in El Paso County, Republicans were only able to manage around 15,500 votes to the Democratic Party's 31,000 votes.

Do you see what I mean here?

The math just doesn't work. Even at both extremes as examples, there is not path to victory for any Republican.

I know what you're thinking. What about the Sore Loser Democrats that are supporting What's-Her-Name for Congress? Surely they will play a factor.

WRONG!

Voters are creatures of habit. Anyone who knows politics understand this and thats why GOTV strategies are what they are. You might get a person to flip occasionally, but PEOPLE are different. Seniors are the most reliable voters and if they have been voting either Democratic or Republican for years, its not likely they are going to flip to the other side without the most unique or compelling of reasons. Anybody see that happening?

I don't.

Translation?

Like I've been saying all along, no GOP candidate will win countywide. In fact, ANY Republican that wins countywide would be a MAJOR upset. But that isn't going to happen.

Sorry guy-I-bet-Cattleman's-with, you're gonna have to pay up vato. Don't forget, booze is included.

The only real debate is who is going to win with the biggest margin. Here's what I think. Not scientific in the least and I did no research on this. Just mostly based on general campaign knowledge and educated guesses.

So the following races are ranked in order of the candidate who I think will have the greatest win margin over their opponent:

President Obama over Mitt for Brains

Luis Aguilar over Bill Hicks

Martha Dominguez over Charlie Garza

Vince Perez over Fred Chavez

Carlos Leon over Lendermen (Sorry, I'm an eastsider, politically aware, and I don't even know his first name, lol)

Senator Rodriguez over Dan Chavez

Beto O'Rourke over What's-Her-Name

Yvonne Rodriguez over Justice Antcliff

So what this list means is the candidates closer to the top are going to win by a larger margin, the ones closer to the bottom are still going to win, but by not as big as a margin as the others. A couple of side-notes to this list though. Dominguez-Garza and Rodriguez Antcliff are races over multiple counties. O'Rourke - What's-Her-Name is a race that is not quite countywide.

Remember, Antcliff came pretty close in the last election (although that was an anomaly because it was the best performance for the GOP and is not likely to be anywhere near the same in this election).

Antcliff, of all the Republicans has the best "branding" of the GOP class along with good qualifications and great reputation. Thats while he'll be the best performer of the Republican candidates.

2 comments:

Max Powers said...

On that note, "All Statewide Democrats Poised for Nov Loss".

Anonymous said...

Beto, Yvonne Rodriguez, Vince Perez jose Rodriguez & Max Powers!!!!!!