Thursday, November 8, 2012

Other Mayoral Candidates

I read this piece in the El Paso Times about possible challengers to Ortega for the position of Mayor. In the piece it mentions two other city reps as possible candidates for Mayor, specifically Emma Acosta and Eddie Holguin.

Frankly I don't think either of them are going to run. I don't think either of them could beat Ortega either.

I think based on the strength of the propositions passing on Tuesday that Ortega gets a big bounce of support. I think he looks stronger and more formidable of a candidate as a result. That really takes the wind out of the sales of potential candidates.

But I think Holguin isn't interested in running for Mayor for a different reason. I think Holguin feels like being a Mayor means you have less influence on policy because you are not likely to vote on too many issues. Based on the results of his last election, Holguin is strong in his district and I think he knows it.

I think he'd much rather run for State Representative against Naomi Gonzalez than for Mayor. Its a smaller race and is confined to an area where he has demonstrated the ability to win and win big. Gonzalez's win over former State Representative Norma Chavez was big, but I don't think she's really solidified that seat as hers yet.

That leaves the door open for Holguin.

He's a much stronger candidate for state rep than mayor. I'm betting Holguin has seen the same number of under-votes Gonzalez had in the primary. She's vulnerable and Holguin has a little more time to prepare for that kind of race. If they did run, that race would be interesting because it would be a race between two well-known candidates going for the same seat in the same area they currently represent.

Acosta has been indicating she's toying with the idea, but the result of the propositions and the fact that its Steve Ortega that is the candidate probably change the equation for Acosta in terms of a mayoral bid.

I'm sure there'll be more candidates get in the race, but right now its tough to see a candidate that has the ground game, name ID, access to funding, and knowledge of issues that Ortega seems to have. It would take a big name with lots of money starting really early to defeat someone as formidable as Steve Ortega.

And I just don't see anyone out there.

1 comment:

Ernesto Villanueva said...

I have to agree, I think Acosta was definitely looking into running this next election, but the fact that Steve came right out of the General to announce might have taken the wind out of her sails. Coming out early, now Acosta sees the size of the hill she has to climb and she may rethink her run, in that respect Steve Ortega's timing was perfect!