Saturday, April 11, 2015

Campaign Finance Reports - What The $ Means

Money makes campaigns work. It's crappy, but it is necessary to get your message out to voters. 

The candidate who raises the most money doesn't always win. But statistically, they win most of the time. Think of the last municipal elections. The top money campaigns almost ran the table - Mayor Leeser had so much feria he paid someone about $25k to just do social media.

That's more money than what was raised by almost every candidate in this election cycle.

Bottom line is that the amount of money you raise is an indicator of your support and a pretty good likelihood that you'll win. Sure, occasionally someone Suerkins-it and loses it, but rarely.

Vince Perez didn't raise as much as Chente Quintanilla and David Stout didn't raise as much money as Sergio Lewis and they both won, but those were unique circumstances with teams that knew how to leverage their funding.

At the very least you have to be competitive in terms of the amount of money raised to have any realistic chance of winning.

So the also-rans that didn't raise much money...you can go ahead and basically count them out. At this point they have to hope for "moral victories".

Sorry crazies but most of your candidates are not likely to do very well. 

Right about now Stephanie Townsend-Allala and that little Mayor of Munchkinland with bad hygiene Hector Montes are going to try to find a way to put the best face on this but it's pretty one-sided in terms of money ball.

The reality is the money in this town is like the odds-makers in Vegas. It's not just a whim. The people with money will make a calculated move in terms of their money.

I know that is not as sexy as the conspiracy theorists would like it to be. They're hoping for some sort of deeper correlation.

The rich white folks want to back people they think can win.

The more money you have, the more times you can touch a voter. It's that simple. You can pay for more mail, more phone calls, more block walkers, more signs, etc.

That's not to say that there aren't campaigns that blow their money lead. Some of them blow a couple grand a month on consulting fees for some slick talker to basically give them crappy campaign data and avoid their calls.

The incumbents are going to run the table...clearly. Dagda raised more money than I thought he would, but so did Niland. Which probably drives all the crazies...well, more crazy. He's just out-gunned. 

Pickett is going to get trucked. If this were football Ordaz would be Bo Jackson and Pickett would be the Boz.

In District 5 the answer is Noe. The question is, who is going to win?

It's the district 1 race where the money is gonna make the difference. Let's start with a truth...Svarzbein surprised all of you. 

No one expected him to raise that much money. Hell Svarzbein probably didn't think he would either.

The other top-tier candidates in that race were busy giving each other the fish-eye and completely discounting Svarzbein and I'm betting none of them thought he'd be the one to be the surprise dollar-earner.

And here's the kicker about his money. 

It's not inflated. 

Candidates like to add padding to their bras for campaign reports. For whatever reason they think the people who take the time to read a report won't figure out that paying yourself or adding "consulting fee" from your own firm, or dropping a big amount of your own cash into the report doesn't fool anyone.

Of the top tier candidates in that race I was surprised at how much of a difference there was in fund raising between the two top money candidates, Al Weisenberger and Svarzbein compared to the other top tier candidates. 

I figured Weisenberger and Gallardo would duke it out for the top spot and I thought Svarzbein might be happy to be in third place.

Gallardo under-performed. She was a very distant third raising less than half of each of the two top candidates.

So now Svarzbein will have a target on his back and the other candidates will be gunning for him. The Rodney Dangerfield of the race has turned in to Johnny Dangerously.

Now it's a sprint to early voting. The 8 day report, or as I call it, the GOTV report, will foreshadow how all the races turn out.

Can Bonart and Bertha bring in the bucks or will Svarzbein and Weisenberger distance themselves from the rest of the field? 




4 comments:

Anonymous said...

"The rich white folks want to back people they think can win."

Correction "the rich white folks want to back people they KNOW will forward their agenda."At minimum most of the time, can't make it to obvious or the crazies will suspect.

Sold out in EP

Anonymous said...

Not sure Svarzbein has been using his money well. I live in the district I have seen signs but no block walking, no literature, no phone calls at this time.

I believe I would be contacted in some form. Firefighters have hit me up twice, they have checked voting records. Bonart has reached out twice.

Bonart's Hummer said...

I'm not sure where you live Anonymous, his team has been all over the Westside. I'm almost getting tired seeing all the yard signs all over Mission Hills, Kern and the Coronado, Franklin area... He seems to be sticking with alot of folks...

You must be backing a never has been like Bonart.
It's a wonder how he can get in his obnoxious hummer after getting his knee replaced.

Anonymous said...

Like I said Bonnarts Hummer, I've seen yard signs but nothing more. I'm a voter in this district. If fire fighters and Bonnart could seek me out, they must be spending money on right tools.

Thanks for helping me make up my mind on Svarzbein and his supporters.