Wednesday, February 3, 2016

HD 77 Race: 30 Day Financial Report

With just 30 days to go before the election and only a couple of weeks before the start of early voting the candidates are rounding third and starting to up all their activity.

The more you look at the money the clearer it is that Adolfo Lopez has a steeper and steeper hill to climb. Ortega has more money in the bank with 30 days to go and that is usually a good sign of who is in the best position to win. Candidates with nothing left in the tank at the 30 day are running on fumes and candidates with fat stacks can really start to pour it on in the closing days of the race.

Lopez is likely to lose, but depending on where he lives, he might actually be pretty well set-up to run for city council for Romero's seat.

Which is interesting when you consider that Lopez is the candidate that Forma has gone all-in for. If you read his report, most of the PAC money he is getting is probably what I call "Marisa Money". Marquez is great at opening doors and getting money to come it, but it isn't coming in at the rate it needs to in order for them to win.

Watch for this one to go to the airwaves in the closing days of the campaign because its really the only play left for Lopez.

And here's my beef with TV advertising. Unless you're running countywide, there's really not a need for television. Its too expensive and doesn't yield measurable results. Here's what I mean, television isn't targeted advertising. So you have to hope a lot of things happen in order for your message to hit a target voter.

#1 - you have to hope that a voter you want to get out to the polls and vote for you is watching TV.

#2 - you have to hope that they are watching the station you purchased airtime with.

#3 - you have to hope they are watching the station you purchased airtime with, at the time you purchased the ad to run.

#4 - you have to hope that there is nothing else distracting them, or that they don't flip the channel like we all do, during the commercial break.

#5- then you have to hope the watch the spot in its entirety and remember the important take-aways from the spot, your name, the office you're running for and when/where to vote.

Yes, a LOT of people will see your spot if you run a television ad, but if you're running for an office in central, why the hell do you care if someone on the eastside watches your commercial? They can't vote for you anyway. You have no way to track if your targeted voter saw the ad, if they are even a voter, if they vote regularly and if they vote in your district.

But expect to see it anyway.

One final note about Forma. There's a real chance that they are going to get shut-out in this election cycle. I don't think they have a single candidate in their stable that is in a position to actually win. When you tally their monthly retainers and the fees they charge on top of the retainer, money which is mostly being funneled through the TLR, they stand to make a pretty penny this election cycle. Which is good now that they expanded their staff like I wrote about yesterday, so they probably have to charge more.

But what happens when the only major political consulting firm in town goes 0-for in this cycle? I'm sure Ali Razavi will have a great story explaining it all...

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Who are the forma candidates besides Lopez? I'm too lazy to read finance reports.