Thursday, April 21, 2016

Elections & Run-Off Elections

The run-off election for the DA race, the Tax Assessor No One Gives a Shit Collector, and the 8th Court of Appeals election will be interesting for several reasons but one of them is because of the fact that there is a city election right before it.

I'll get to that in a minute.

The DA race and the Tax Assessor Collector race are interesting because they essentially feature incumbents in run-off elections against younger female challengers. As I have mentioned previously, incumbents in a run-off is generally a political death sentence. But inactivity on the part of their opponents, or at least not using the full run-off time effectively, has probably given the incumbents more of an opportunity than they probably otherwise would have had.

I couldn't find a single incumbent who was pulled into a run-off that actually won. If there is one, it damn sure isn't recent. But it looks like its not out of the realm of possibility if, and only if, the incumbents really push hard and make the right choices. The odds are against them, but if they make the right moves there is a path to victory for both of them.

Ruben Gonzalez deserves an honorable mention here. The fact that there was a run-off at all was pretty surprising. Two male opponents with the exact same name, on a down-ballot race for an office no one gives a shit about.

And not only did he make a run-off, but he is going into the run-off with the most votes. Run-off elections are about turn-out and you have to give the advantage to Ruben Gonzalez because of his campaign manager Mike Apodaca. Brilliant field performance. The expression in sports that "defense wins championships" could be converted in politics to "field wins elections" and Apodaca put together a good field strategy.

His signs however, suck. Seriously if there were an award for the Worst Quality Signs in the History of Anything Mike should win that one. El Paso spring weather is hard on campaign signs. Harder on them when you pick chaffa material. Come on Apodaca!

So then there's the D2 race, which was sandwiched between the primary and run-off elections. So in May, there will be two early voting periods and two election days for two different elections. Anyone doing field work in that area is going to confuse the crap out of voters. Its going to hurt turnout, but more so for the D2 candidates who will already be dealing with a small electorate.

And since there is going to be a run-off, and that will happen after the primary run-off, there will be an increase in voter confusion and a decrease in voter participation. So the person that goes into office for D2 isn't exactly going to go in with a mandate.

And finally - the race for 8th Court of Appeals. Its the most important election, but frankly the two candidates don't appear to be doing anything. If you've ever had kids you've probably had to deal with them being really noisy and annoying at some point. So you play the "Quiet Game" in order to get them to shut up for a while.

I think Ramirez and Palafox have their horns locked in the most epic round of the Quiet Game in the history of the game.

Seriously, one of you act like you want to win! That race is more boring than C-SPAN 2 or listening to jazz.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

You didn't analyze the DA race. What are your thoughts on that? I'm pleasantly surprised Esparza couldn't get 50%+1. That's bad news for him after 24 years of name recognition.