Tuesday, January 10, 2017

Mayoral Race Shift - Why Margo Won't Win

I could make this really short and say that he won't win because he's white and Republican.

But let me illustrate my point a little more clearly because the people blowing up Margo's chances of winning are comical to me.

City Rep Cortney Niland was going to run for mayor and backed out at the last minute. I think she could've beat Margo. Yes, you read that correctly. The rep that almost lost to a weak candidate was a stronger mayoral candidate than Margo.

Walk with me down memory lane for a moment, shall we?

Dee Margo has run in a race that encompasses the entire city of El Paso previously. A little over a decade ago he ran against Eliot Shapleigh when the senator was politically at his weakest.

At the result? Margo got his ass handed to him:

He didn't even warrant getting an Adelante Con Ganas Award from Senator Shapleigh following the loss.

Mind you, that was 11 years ago, before anyone really was introduced to Margo in the electorate. Now he's been a Republican State Rep. He's headed an unelected school board in a controversial move by the state and was appointed to the position because of his Republican connections.

The point is, people are going to naively try to brush the last election result under the rug by saying this election (the mayoral) is non-partisan and therefore Margo's money and name ID make him viable.

His name ID is a liability. Oh, and he has a voting record.

Sure, with Emma Acosta and fellow Republican candidate David Saucedo in the race, its a pitifully weak mayoral field, especially now that Leeser has made it clear he's not gonna save El Paso from these candidates, but Margo is still at a big disadvantage.

Because not even money is going to save Margo's name ID liability.

Here's what I mean...

According to campaign finance reports Margo's campaign spent $733,175.33 to try to win a senate seat. When he didn't have a voting record. That's a chingo of feria to spend on a campaign.

There is no way in hell there is going to be that much money at play in the mayoral race. Seriously, there isn't going to be anywhere near that much money on the table. And if 3/4 of million dollars a decade ago couldn't do it for him then, what facts would anyone base his viability on now?

How do you get anyone south of the freeway in El Paso to vote for Margo?

Mayor Leeser showed his cards already and isn't going to run for reelection. Saucedo's two campaign guys (now famous for their cameo - the frustrated look and the bun - in Saucedo's shit-down-his-pants interview on KTSM) are now ready to spike the ball in the end zone.

Saucedo is the biggest beneficiary of Beto O'Rourke's unbelievable stupid idea to give up his congressional seat to run for US Senate. They know that. All they have to do is protect Saucedo from exposing his weaknesses (basically speaking) any further and watch Acosta implode and Margo struggle to gain traction.


Anonymous said...

So are you saying Saucedo still has a chance?!?
And can you please stage a Democratic Intervention and talk Beto out of running for Senate or at least wait until he can go against Cornyn?

Augustus Snodgrass said...

Jaime, well written as usual. However, I am slightly puzzled on your take that Saucedo benefits from O'Rourke's (Death Wish) to run for the Senate.

Isn't Saucedo in the same boat, either way? I think he probably has the Millenial Vote, but then, how many of them go out and vote? And, with Saucedo being a Republican, how many of those Millenial's will vote for a Democrat instead of Saucedo?

Keep up the Great Work!