Monday, April 24, 2017

D7 Race Analysis

The D7 race was the last one live streamed on KTSM and it was interesting because it exposed Henry Rivera for being extremely weak on policy. Rivera rarely makes forum appearances, I have been looking for the guy to show up at a forum but his new wife Dora Oaxaca keeps him under pretty tight wraps.

When he has a scripted answer Rivera is able to stumble and stammer his way to an attack on Limón but his presentation kills his own attack lines. It was painful to watch. When he's asked a question Dora hasn't given him the script for, its a disaster and he never knows the answer. The comment section was great because Rivera's supporters were all over it, although I was disappointed that I handed my number out and none of them called me like they said they were...

Anywho, I saw that he and Emma Acosta's campaign were teaming up in the valley over the weekend (Dora Oaxaca runs both campaigns) and trying to leave material for both campaigns. That is the dumbest thing an organizer can do. It never works and it usually leads to disaster. Each candidate is automatically perceived to be part of a "ticket" and you take on the baggage of the other campaign. Point is, its hard enough to get your message to "stick" with a voter during your very limited time at the door with them, its even harder when you have to try to do it for two people.

Its usually a sign of desperation or laziness.

That being said, Rivera sent a really effective mail piece recently that was pretty negative toward Limón. The biggest problem for Rivera to try to overcome is the fact that he has low name-ID. He's tried to remedy that by posting signs all over the place but I think someone should show him where the district boundaries are because he has a lot of them that are pretty far out of the district.

Get a map Dora, they are pretty cheap at the courthouse.

Bottom line is yes, Limón is vulnerable. She's got some issues that should concern her campaign, but she's in a one-on-one race with someone with no name ID and his union didn't even endorse him. Watch for early voting numbers, if Limón is ahead, look for it to stay that way throughout the night.

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