Monday, April 3, 2017

Sorry to Rain on the Beto Parade...

But someone has to speak the truth in this cacophony of excitement about Beto O'Rourke running for the United States Senate.

Let me preface by saying I will vote for Beto or whichever Castro it is that is running over the Canadian in the Senate every day of the week and twice on Sunday. I can't stand Cruz and think he's bad for Texas.

But whoever wins the primary, is going to lose the general to Cruz. Sorry, but the numbers aren't there.

Beto and whichever Castro brother it is that is going to run are both on a Quixotic adventure. There is no data that shows Cruz is vulnerable.

The election cycle they are going to take on Cruz is a gubernatorial cycle. That means Republican turnout is even higher. Both Democratic candidates have to figure out a way that they can flip that script and frankly I don't see how either of them can do it.

I'll vote for either of them, but lets be real - there's no evidence that either of them can beat Cruz. Frankly I think both of them have a future but the one that loses to Cruz is gonna be done and the other will live to fight another day.

The biggest impact is how this completely reshuffles the deck in terms of local politics. Former Mayor John Cook, who has been itching to run for something, has already announced his intentions to run for County Judge. All kinds of people will be moving around now. Let the bloodshed begin! (More on this particular topic later)

The really stupid argument is going to be in the Primary. People who still haven't gotten over the Reyes loss are going to be Team Castro and trash Beto with the same old stuff. You can spot these people right away because they are the ones that will call Beto Robert because they are offended that a rich white guy uses a Spanish nickname that was given to him by the maid.

Which is a funny thing to be mad about because the Castro's don't speak Spanish.

Also, all of you with a Spanish first name that use an English nickname or shortened form that are pissed at the use of Beto, should stop using it and use you're Spanish name. You know, like Silver.

The names don't matter to me, I want to see who is the better debater. I want to see who has the better policy proposals and who will better represent the border in the Senate because Cruz most certainly doesn't. IF that is what the Primary is going to be about, then I'm excited.

If its going to be about names and who speaks Spanish, then Beto wins because he the white guy and he speaks better Spanish than Cruz and Castro...


Alfredo said...

Here's another wrinkle I haven't heard anyone discussing. If Beto loses to Castro in the primary, he'll be able to run for his House seat again. He still has one more term before his self-imposed limit, so it's not impossible that he'd want to serve two more years. Any thoughts on this?

The Lion Star said...

Yeah I thought about that but Beto speaks a lot about term limits and even mentioned it in his announcement speech. I highly doubt he'd going back to try to serve 2 years, especially after someone else will already be there.

Unless its someone really bad, I can't see Beto going back. I think he's more likely to come back and run for mayor.

Anonymous said...

Do you think he would make a good Governor Candidate?
Maybe he can move to New Mexico and try being a Senator there?
His family owns a lot of homes there.

The Lion Star said...

Gubernatorial run wouldn't change his numbers problems.

He's an El Pasoan, I think he will come back and run for mayor or maybe county judge at some point. He still has a couple of options now that I think about it.

Anonymous said...

Totally agree with you, Cruz will be re-elected. The Castros would have a better chance of winning and that's not saying much.

Speaking Spanish and Spanish nicknames wil not make a difference. Voters will if not should look at their records. All of them have a record that invites scrunity.

The only thing Cook should run for, is the Franklins ! He has shown that he lacks courage with tough decisions, easily manipulated by the barons, no original ideas except his tasteless hot sauce. An embarrassement to the area with him traveling all over Texas with the cheap vauville act and giving the former President the cheap sauce instead the key to the city. If he somehow gets any votes then we will know that El Paso has truly lost its mind.

Beto running for mayor ? interesting idea except he needs to articulate what will he do different. After all, he is being hit for the second ward destruction via a deal with the father in law.

The main problem is the locals always campaign about Juarez instead of El Paso. What gives? That's another country.

The Lion Star said...

The Do-Ruhn-Guito issue is over stated by people with an agenda. Its not going to be the impact that they think it will be.

It certainly wouldn't impact O'Rourke. He'd win a mayoral race in a landslide.

Anonymous said...

How does Beto stand on the Second Amendment?