Tuesday, May 9, 2017
Election Analysis: D2
Incumbent City Rep Jim Tolbert is in a world of trouble and baring some kind of miracle, is going to lose his seat that he won just a short time ago.
Rep Tolbert has taken a huge nosedive in popularity within a very short period of time and it was all self-inflicted wounds. Steakgate, Assholegate, the Texas Ranger investigation - all of those mistakes were avoidable and now you end up with an incumbent in a run-off.
Incumbents in run-off elections lose. Only one - District Attorney Jaime Esparza was able to overcome that trend but he didn't have anywhere near the problems Tolbert is facing. Tolbert not only ended up in a run-off, he went in to the runoff behind. That doesn't matter much - but it does when you're the incumbent.
Annello I don't think even expected to be ahead. If you saw her doing election night coverage, it was from her living room. She wasn't at a party or celebration or anything like that. She was at her place.
In any other election a transplant from the Northeast part of the country with almost no local voting history and very little time in the area loses and loses big. But that is how much of a rejection it has been of Tolbert.
And Tolbert even sent out a piece of negative mail. Granted it was a weird and creepy piece of mail, but it was a negative piece nonetheless. To my knowledge Tolbert wasn't even hit by any of the candidates in the campaign - although I'd expect that to change now that Annello made a run-off and will likely get some cash flow heading in her direction.
Now is the time Annello needs to drop mail that highlights all the negative shit Tolbert has hanging over his head and that should seal the deal for her.
On election night Tolbert was whining about how he had to deal with so much dirty campaigning, which made me chuckle because no one hit him. If anything, everyone else should be complaining that he had his campaign guy posing as a disinterested party tossing softballs to him and attacking other candidates at a forum until Annello boyfriend called him out on it.
Tolbert should stop the narrative that there is nothing to see here with the Texas Rangers investigation and realize that the investigation is looming over his head and voters don't like it. Especially when he tries to hang his defense on the ethics complaint being dismissed. Voters are smarter than you give them credit for.
As much as some people hate to admit it, the investigation matters to voters and the election night results proved it. Thats why such an inferior candidate like Henry Rivera beat Limon.
First it was Lily Limon and now Tolbert will likely be the second victim of the Texas Rangers investigation.
Posted by The Lion Star at 8:22 AM