Wednesday, May 10, 2017

Election Analysis: D3

Jaime Barceleau had a huge edge in spending. Big-time lead in money.

And he still came in second.

No matter how you look at it, Barceleau is in trouble. I know, I joked that he wouldn't even make the run-off because I knew he was going to have a hard time getting voters to support him.

Now the choice is between Barceleau and a younger progressive female candidate. Guess who El Pasoans vote for almost always when given the choice?

Barceleau is really in trouble because no one around him has told him he doesn't know shit about campaigning. I heard he had the same problem during the EPISD election in which Jaime is actually proud of the fact that he raised your taxes BIGLY in the bond election. Multiple sources in that campaign told me how much of a pain in the ass he was and how he kept coming up with terrible ideas and tried to be the boss. Eventually he was pushed to the side and was just a titular campaign chair.

Barceleau has to understand that two things matter in a run-off - field and mail. Barceleau creeps people out, so knocking on doors doesn't help, and he has to let someone else do his mail. Its the same old American flag design no one can read, which is good because the last one he sent out had a typo.

They look like junk mail from a furniture company.

Judging by his wife making a very sharp personal attack in the comment section of the debates on KTSM, I'm expecting this part of the race to get down and dirty. And frankly, you could tell for a long time, going back to my post about demeanor and temperament, that Barceleau has wanted to go after Brown and her past.

Its not a matter of IF he does it, its a matter of WHEN he does it. And he's gonna wait to do it until the last minute and its going to come across as desperate on his part.

It'll be the print version of "Nobody asked you sir!"

If I were Brown, I would stick to doing what I'm doing but jumping at any chance to get into a debate with this guy and step on the gas when she does. Turn up the heat a little on Barceleau and watch his anger take over and he will blow up again.

Brown has to focus north of the freeway. She won the valley portion of the district but the area north of the freeway in the Hanks and Eastwood areas of the district she won but by margins that could be dangerous for her if she doesn't go and win a few of them by bigger margins. I'd work his own precinct just to make him play defense in his own back yard too.


Anonymous said...

So you've been critical of Barceleau for endorsing a Republican and of Morgan taking donations from Republicans. And you've been critical of all Republican candidates, including Elisa Morales who you tagged as a Republican because she voted in two Republican primaries a while back and worked for a Republican. In the past, you were also pretty harsh about Marissa Marquez and Noemi Marquez endorsing Fer Margo. What do you think now about Claudia Ordaz and Emma Acosta, two self-identified Democrats, endorsing Dee Margo? I'm genuinely interested in your take. Me, I just think El Paso politics have descended into a shit show.

Anonymous said...

Great plan you came up with for Brown. Just pull his chain and watch him freak out.

I don't understand why candidates try to be their own campaign managers. It's impossible. One is to deliver the message, the other to devise the plan. If he continues to interfere with the campaign managers plan he WILL lose. If he lacks confidence in his staff, he should have fired them long ago. It's too late now ! Brown will be the new city rep.

David C. Escobar said...

everyday i come here to smile just for no body asked you sir!!!!