Monday, May 8, 2017

Election Analysis - Mayor's Race

So the "Democratic Stronghold of Texas" will now have a run-off for mayor between two Republicans.

Which is why I'm encouraging everyone to go undervote in the run-off. That means going to show up to the run-off election and casting your ballot without selecting anyone. That sends a message that you want none of the above.

Yes, someone has to, and will win. But a really high undervote sends a strong message, not that the winner of a race with a turn-out far below 10% will have a mandate for anything anyway.

Dee Margo and David Saucedo will face off in the June run-off election and barring some major development, Dee Margo will be the next mayor of El Paso.

And the reason why is because of the District 8 race being held on the same day.

Yet again the westside accounted for a huge number of votes in a citywide election - and they didn't even have a city rep race pushing people out to the polls. They had more votes than areas of town that had a district race to vote for in addition to the mayoral race.

Imagine how much more of an influence the westside is going to be with a city council race to vote for too?

And thats why Margo is likely to win the run-off.

Lets look deeper into the numbers to underscore exactly why.

The easy thing to do is say that Margo hit his ceiling and can't get over the 50%. Completely ridiculous. Margo won even in the valley. The valley doesn't have anywhere near the number of voters in west El Paso, or most areas of town for that matter, but it is always the bluest part of town. The fact that a white guy, known for being a Republican, was able to appeal to voters even in that area of town is a big deal and spells trouble for Saucedo.

If you look at the margin of victory for Margo in those areas its not that big, and Saucedo will likely flip most of them, but the fact that he was even competitive at all in those areas shows that Saucedo can't rely simply on being brown to win. In the area of town where that probably resonates the most, Margo still had the most votes even though voters had other options.

But the biggest reason Saucedo is going to be in trouble is because the margin of victory on the westside for Margo were so huge. That is clearly Margo's stronghold. And that is only going to get bigger and stronger when the westside has a district race to come out for as well.

The eastside and northeast also gave Margo some big margins of victory. Margo has a ton of money he's still sitting on, so Margo is going to have a big advantage reaching voters' mailboxes a few times before the election day that is only a few weeks away.

Saucedo's very narrow path to victory is a field program. His field director will likely get some places to flip, primarily in the valley and its possible that he might even be able to run the table south of I-10.

But he needs more to win. Dee Margo didn't get over 45% by not appealing to Latinos and Democrats. Saucedo's field program needs money to feed that engine. He is going to need a big financial shot in the arm or spend a lot of his own money to pay block walkers to walk almost all daylight hours to have a realistic shot at touching his targets before election day. Dee Margo has a huge advantage in that department.

The other thing that is REALLY going to be harmful to Saucedo is the fact that his field guy won't be 100% focused on his race. That is going to be a disaster. His field guy has three other candidates in run-offs - Jim Tolbert (his former boss), Sam Morgan (who got a donation from his current boss' opponent) and Jaime Barceleau (who had a huge money lead and still came in second to a new-comer with a record).

When you're in a run-off election, where field work is even more important, you need your field program to be 100% focused, especially considering the shortened period of time you have to win over voters. Its hard for one guy to say with a straight face that he's 100% focused on all four campaigns at once. Especially when all four of his candidates are in trouble in the run-off.

The low voter turnout showed just how much El Pasoans hated the field of candidates.

I'd be remiss if I didn't mention how poorly Acosta performed. Seriously just 6 of 171 precincts for a two-term city rep that was the only Hispanic female and Democrat in a race featuring two Republicans? GTFOH! She should've been MUCH higher than that.

And she lost almost every single precinct that she represented on city council.

I also though Jaime O. Perez and Elisa Morales under performed as well. Jaime O has been on the ballot so many times that it might match the amount of times you see "City of El Paso" on the ballot. You'd think at some point he'd break single digits. Hell he almost didn't get a single digit this time. Morales just barely edged out Willie Cager who pretty much had no campaign activity whatsoever.

My last point here - and I'm going to analysis on each of the races individually - is that there were two things that stood out about Saturday night's results. One - the arena appeared to be a complete non-factor to voters and two - the investigation by the Texas Rangers appears to have been a big factor.

Everyone touched by that investigation will be gone soon, except City Rep Peter Svarzbein. He'll be the last one of them left on the dais after the run-off.


Anonymous said...

Great analysis!
Another point I have heard is that Dee's surrogates were very nice and personable while Saucedo's came across Douchey like he is.
There also has to be some understanding that this is like Margo's third campaign, correct? So I think he has some structural things in place that Saucedo's doesn't.
With all the mess ups Saucedo's campaign has gone thru it may be a blessing that his field guy is busy with other candidates, LOL!

Anonymous said...

Now that's down to Republicans, the west side will vote for Dee. Saucedo has too much of an update hill battle. It will be easier forr Dee to pick the necessary percentages than Saucedo with half of Dee votes.

Saucedo's arrogance, appearance, used car speeches and trying to blame others for his failures did him in. Even Sam Morgan knew to cut his dreg locks to provide a cleaner, serious and statesman look.

Sorry Jamie, under voting won't do a thing. If Dee does a great job as mayor, we could see a turning point in El Paso politics. People opted for change and unfortunately the Democrats did not have a good candidate.