Westsiders apparently have a pretty low threshold for their elected officials. Both westside city reps are facing a lot of opponents, which makes a run-off election more and more likely. Incumbents in elections generally lose, although lately that trend isn't the political death sentence it used to be.
Late last week two more opponents for Svarzbein made it official by filing at the city clerks office. Richard Bonart - who is said to be sitting on $20k - filed is paperwork late last week. Svarzbein isn't going to raise anywhere near as much money as he did in the first election so the fact that Bonart has that much starter money is pretty significant.
If that is ALL the money Bonart is going to have, then its not so significant.
Enter, Veronica Frescas. "Roni" as she is commonly known as - if she can get funding - is the one to watch in this race. The only Latina running for the seat, Frescas has deep policy knowledge which is going to be a huge advantage over Carlos Corral.
Roni has been involved in the El Paso political scene for a long time, and she's helped out on a lot of campaigns. The challenge for her is moving from behind the scenes type of activism and campaigning, to being an actual candidate. Frescas has the most upside to her and in a field of men she's not gonna have a hard time distinguishing herself.
Svarzbein is the incumbent. He's the one with a record that can be scrutinized. He's the one they are trying to unseat. So he's going to face the most heat from everyone else and from the public.
I think if Frescas gets some funding and as committed to a strong field operation, I think she's most likely to make a run-off with Svarzbein. People that didn't want to elect an artsy film guy with no political experience, or regret that they did, aren't going to be too hot about electing Corral who is essentially a browner version of the incumbent before he was elected.
Although Corral appears to be more willing to dress like an adult and wear a suit. If he packages himself more as a businessman instead of an artist, that will be more successful for him.
Bonart is the X factor for two reasons. One - he's run and lost before. He's got name ID in that area and he's sitting on some money. He's also got a great reputation for being a stand-up guy, which is something you can't buy, only earn. If Max Grossman gets his Houston Sugar Daddy to kick in some money, that could be even more Bonart has in the war chest (which should have all the bottom feeders like Jeremy Jordan cold calling him). The downside is of course, being associated with Max Grossman. Especially because Max Grossman doesn't know how to shut up, so his big mouth is likely going to be something that will be a boat anchor around Bonart.
One day in his efforts to buy a city council, Grossman will realize its better to help quietly and not become a distraction. Just kidding, his ego is too big for him to ever learn that.